[article]
| Titre : |
Charting out the future agricultural trade and its impact on water resources |
| Type de document : |
objet à 3 dimensions, artefacts, ... |
| Auteurs : |
M. Tuninetti, Auteur ; F. Laio ; L. Ridolfi, Auteur |
| Année de publication : |
2020 |
| Article en page(s) : |
p. 1-12 |
| Langues : |
Anglais (eng) Langues originales : Anglais (eng) |
| Catégories : |
A HISTOIRE - Pays et ensemble de pays:Histoire du Monde Rural:Agriculture ; F POPULATIONS - ETUDES DE CAS:Economic development ; F POPULATIONS - ETUDES DE CAS:Environmental impact ; S SCIENCES ET TECHNIQUES:Pollution, catastrophes et sécurité:Dégradation de l'environnement:Pollution:Pollution de l'eau
|
| Mots-clés : |
07 - ENVIRONNEMENT 7.3 - Eau. Gestion de l'Eau AGRICULTURAL TRADE COMMERCE AGRICOLE WATER RESOURCES RESSOURCE EN EAU HUMAN FEEDING ALIMENTATION HUMAINE FEED INDUSTRY INDUSTRIE DE L'ALIMENTATION ANIMALE WATER FOOTPRINT EMPREINTE HYDRIQUE IMPACT SUR L'ENVIRONNEMENT WATER POLLUTION WATER USE UTILISATION DE L'EAU DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUE |
| Résumé : |
International agricultural trade triggers inter-dependency among distant countries, not only in economic terms but also under an environmental perspective. Agricultural trade has been shown to drive environmental threats pertaining to biodiversity loss and depletion and pollution of freshwater resources. Meanwhile, trade can also encourage production where it is most efficient, hence minimizing the use of natural resources required by agriculture. In this study, we provide a country-level assessment of the future international trade for 6 primary crops and 3 animal products composing 70% of the human diet caloric content. We set up four variegate socio-economic scenarios with different level of economic developments, diets habits, population growth dynamics, and levels of market liberalization. Results show that the demand of agricultural goods and the correspondent trade flow will increase with respect to current levels by 10–50% and 74–178% by 2050, respectively. The largest increase in the amount of traded goods is expected under the Economic Optimism scenario that will see an average trade flow of 2830 kcal/cap/day (i.e., nearly doubling the current per-capita flow). Most of the increase will be driven by the trade of crops for animal feeding, particularly maize will be the most traded crop. The trade networks architecture in 2050 and 2080 will be very different from the one we actually know, with a clear shift of the trade pole from the Western toward the Eastern economies. The dramatic changes of global food-sources and trade patterns will jeopardize the water resources of new regions while exacerbating the pressure in those areas that will continue serving food also in the future. In spite of this, trade may annually save around 40–60 m3 of water per person, compared to a situation where countries are self-sufficient. |
| En ligne : |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.136626 |
| Permalink : |
https://cs.iut.univ-tours.fr/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=248118 |
in Science of the Total Environment > vol. 714 (20 April 2020) . - p. 1-12
[article] Charting out the future agricultural trade and its impact on water resources [objet à 3 dimensions, artefacts, ...] / M. Tuninetti, Auteur ; F. Laio ; L. Ridolfi, Auteur . - 2020 . - p. 1-12. Langues : Anglais ( eng) Langues originales : Anglais ( eng) in Science of the Total Environment > vol. 714 (20 April 2020) . - p. 1-12
| Catégories : |
A HISTOIRE - Pays et ensemble de pays:Histoire du Monde Rural:Agriculture ; F POPULATIONS - ETUDES DE CAS:Economic development ; F POPULATIONS - ETUDES DE CAS:Environmental impact ; S SCIENCES ET TECHNIQUES:Pollution, catastrophes et sécurité:Dégradation de l'environnement:Pollution:Pollution de l'eau
|
| Mots-clés : |
07 - ENVIRONNEMENT 7.3 - Eau. Gestion de l'Eau AGRICULTURAL TRADE COMMERCE AGRICOLE WATER RESOURCES RESSOURCE EN EAU HUMAN FEEDING ALIMENTATION HUMAINE FEED INDUSTRY INDUSTRIE DE L'ALIMENTATION ANIMALE WATER FOOTPRINT EMPREINTE HYDRIQUE IMPACT SUR L'ENVIRONNEMENT WATER POLLUTION WATER USE UTILISATION DE L'EAU DEVELOPPEMENT ECONOMIQUE |
| Résumé : |
International agricultural trade triggers inter-dependency among distant countries, not only in economic terms but also under an environmental perspective. Agricultural trade has been shown to drive environmental threats pertaining to biodiversity loss and depletion and pollution of freshwater resources. Meanwhile, trade can also encourage production where it is most efficient, hence minimizing the use of natural resources required by agriculture. In this study, we provide a country-level assessment of the future international trade for 6 primary crops and 3 animal products composing 70% of the human diet caloric content. We set up four variegate socio-economic scenarios with different level of economic developments, diets habits, population growth dynamics, and levels of market liberalization. Results show that the demand of agricultural goods and the correspondent trade flow will increase with respect to current levels by 10–50% and 74–178% by 2050, respectively. The largest increase in the amount of traded goods is expected under the Economic Optimism scenario that will see an average trade flow of 2830 kcal/cap/day (i.e., nearly doubling the current per-capita flow). Most of the increase will be driven by the trade of crops for animal feeding, particularly maize will be the most traded crop. The trade networks architecture in 2050 and 2080 will be very different from the one we actually know, with a clear shift of the trade pole from the Western toward the Eastern economies. The dramatic changes of global food-sources and trade patterns will jeopardize the water resources of new regions while exacerbating the pressure in those areas that will continue serving food also in the future. In spite of this, trade may annually save around 40–60 m3 of water per person, compared to a situation where countries are self-sufficient. |
| En ligne : |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.136626 |
| Permalink : |
https://cs.iut.univ-tours.fr/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=248118 |
|
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