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Partager le résultat de cette rechercheLe commerce international des produits agricoles est-il réellement menacé ? / A. Neveu in Paysans et société / CIHEAM-IAMM, n. 377 (Septembre-Octobre 2019)
Titre : Estimating resilience of crop production systems: from theory to practice Type de document : objet à 3 dimensions, artefacts, ... Auteurs : M. Zampieri, Auteur ; M. van den Berg ; A. Toreti ; B. Grizzetti ; F. Dentener ; C.J. Weissteiner, Auteur Année de publication : 2020 Article en page(s) : p. 1-10 Langues : Anglais (eng) Langues originales : Anglais (eng) Catégories : C ECONOMIE - ECONOMIE SOCIALE ET SOLIDAIRE:Biodiversity ; F POPULATIONS - ETUDES DE CAS:Cropping systems ; S SCIENCES ET TECHNIQUES:Approche scientifique:Méthode scientifique:Évaluation Appraising or judging persons, organizations or things in relation to stated objectives, standards or criteria. Use more specific descriptor where appropriate.; S SCIENCES ET TECHNIQUES:Pollution, catastrophes et sécurité:Dégradation de l'environnement:Changement climatiqueMots-clés : 06 - AGRICULTURE. FORÊTS. PÊCHES 6.4 - Production Agricole. Système de Production RESILIENCE RESILIENCE BIODIVERSITE CLIMATIC CHANGE CROP YIELD RENDEMENT DES CULTURES FARMING SYSTEM SYSTEME DE PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SECTEUR AGRICOLE WEATHER HAZARDS ACCIDENT CLIMATIQUE GLOBAL WARMING RECHAUFFEMENT GLOBAL SYSTEME DE CULTURE INDICATORS INDICATEUR PLANT PRODUCTION PRODUCTION VEGETALE DIVERSIFICATION DIVERSIFICATION Résumé : Agricultural production systems are sensitive to weather and climate anomalies and extremes as well as to other environmental and socio-economic adverse events. An adequate evaluation of the resilience of such systems helps to assess food security and the capacity of society to cope with the effects of global warming and the associated increase of climate extremes. Here, we propose and apply a simple indicator of resilience of annual crop production that can be estimated from crop production time series. First, we address the problem of quantifying resilience in a simplified theoretical framework, focusing on annual crops. This results in the proposal of an indicator, measured by the reciprocal of the squared coefficient of variance, which is proportional to the return period of the largest shocks that the crop production system can absorb, and which is consistent with the original ecological definition of resilience. Subsequently, we show the sensitivity of the crop resilience indicator to the level of management of the crop production system, to the frequency of extreme events as well as to simplified socio-economic impacts of the production losses. Finally, we demonstrate the practical applicability of the indicator using historical production data at national and sub-national levels for France. The results show that the value of the resilience indicator steeply increases with crop diversity until six crops are considered, and then levels off. The effect of diversity on production resilience is highest when crops are more diverse (i.e. as reflected in less well correlated production time series). In the case of France, the indicator reaches about 60% of the value that would be expected if all crop production time-series were uncorrelated. En ligne : https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139378 Permalink : https://cs.iut.univ-tours.fr/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=248136
in Science of the Total Environment > vol. 735 (15 September 2020) . - p. 1-10[article] Estimating resilience of crop production systems: from theory to practice [objet à 3 dimensions, artefacts, ...] / M. Zampieri, Auteur ; M. van den Berg ; A. Toreti ; B. Grizzetti ; F. Dentener ; C.J. Weissteiner, Auteur . - 2020 . - p. 1-10.
Langues : Anglais (eng) Langues originales : Anglais (eng)
in Science of the Total Environment > vol. 735 (15 September 2020) . - p. 1-10
Catégories : C ECONOMIE - ECONOMIE SOCIALE ET SOLIDAIRE:Biodiversity ; F POPULATIONS - ETUDES DE CAS:Cropping systems ; S SCIENCES ET TECHNIQUES:Approche scientifique:Méthode scientifique:Évaluation Appraising or judging persons, organizations or things in relation to stated objectives, standards or criteria. Use more specific descriptor where appropriate.; S SCIENCES ET TECHNIQUES:Pollution, catastrophes et sécurité:Dégradation de l'environnement:Changement climatiqueMots-clés : 06 - AGRICULTURE. FORÊTS. PÊCHES 6.4 - Production Agricole. Système de Production RESILIENCE RESILIENCE BIODIVERSITE CLIMATIC CHANGE CROP YIELD RENDEMENT DES CULTURES FARMING SYSTEM SYSTEME DE PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SECTEUR AGRICOLE WEATHER HAZARDS ACCIDENT CLIMATIQUE GLOBAL WARMING RECHAUFFEMENT GLOBAL SYSTEME DE CULTURE INDICATORS INDICATEUR PLANT PRODUCTION PRODUCTION VEGETALE DIVERSIFICATION DIVERSIFICATION Résumé : Agricultural production systems are sensitive to weather and climate anomalies and extremes as well as to other environmental and socio-economic adverse events. An adequate evaluation of the resilience of such systems helps to assess food security and the capacity of society to cope with the effects of global warming and the associated increase of climate extremes. Here, we propose and apply a simple indicator of resilience of annual crop production that can be estimated from crop production time series. First, we address the problem of quantifying resilience in a simplified theoretical framework, focusing on annual crops. This results in the proposal of an indicator, measured by the reciprocal of the squared coefficient of variance, which is proportional to the return period of the largest shocks that the crop production system can absorb, and which is consistent with the original ecological definition of resilience. Subsequently, we show the sensitivity of the crop resilience indicator to the level of management of the crop production system, to the frequency of extreme events as well as to simplified socio-economic impacts of the production losses. Finally, we demonstrate the practical applicability of the indicator using historical production data at national and sub-national levels for France. The results show that the value of the resilience indicator steeply increases with crop diversity until six crops are considered, and then levels off. The effect of diversity on production resilience is highest when crops are more diverse (i.e. as reflected in less well correlated production time series). In the case of France, the indicator reaches about 60% of the value that would be expected if all crop production time-series were uncorrelated. En ligne : https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139378 Permalink : https://cs.iut.univ-tours.fr/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=248136
Titre : Impacts of climate change on reservoir water availability, quality and irrigation needs in a water scarce Mediterranean region (southern Portugal) Type de document : objet à 3 dimensions, artefacts, ... Auteurs : J. Rocha, Auteur ; J.J. Keizer ; P. Beça ; P. Diogo ; J.P. Nunes ; C. Carvalho-Santos, Auteur Année de publication : 2020 Article en page(s) : p. 1-13 Langues : Anglais (eng) Langues originales : Anglais (eng) Catégories : A HISTOIRE - Pays et ensemble de pays:Histoire de l'Europe:Europe occidentale:Portugal ; C ECONOMIE - ECONOMIE SOCIALE ET SOLIDAIRE:Génie civil, militaire et minier:Technologie hydraulique:Irrigation ; F POPULATIONS - ETUDES DE CAS:Water requirements ; S SCIENCES ET TECHNIQUES:Administration de la science et de la recherche:Technologie:Technologie de pointe ; S SCIENCES ET TECHNIQUES:Approche scientifique:Méthode scientifique:Modèle de simulation Use only in connection with research and planning.; S SCIENCES ET TECHNIQUES:Pollution, catastrophes et sécurité:Dégradation de l'environnement:Changement climatiqueMots-clés : 07 - ENVIRONNEMENT 7.3 - Eau. Gestion de l'Eau CLIMATIC CHANGE BESOIN EN EAU WATER RESERVOIRS RESERVOIR D'EAU WATER AVAILABITY EAU DISPONIBLE GLOBAL WARMING RECHAUFFEMENT GLOBAL WATER RESOURCES RESSOURCE EN EAU HIGH TECHNOLOGY WATER SUPPLY APPROVISIONNEMENT EN EAU SIMULATION MODEL MEDITERRANEAN REGION REGION MEDITERRANEENNE Résumé : Future climate for the Mediterranean climatic region is expected to bring an increase in temperatures, decrease in the precipitation quantity and shifts in the seasonal precipitation pattern. Although the impacts of climate change on water resources have been relatively well explored for the Mediterranean climatic region, the specific consequences for reservoirs and, in particular, water availability and irrigation issues have been less studied. The objective of this work is two-fold: (i) to assess the impacts of future climate changes on water resources availability, quality (focusing on phosphorus loads as this is the limiting nutrient for eutrophication) and irrigation needs for two multipurpose reservoirs in southern Portugal; (ii) to suggest climate change adaptation strategies, especially for the agricultural sector. To this end, the SWAT model was first calibrated against existing data on reservoir inflows as well as phosphorus loads. Then, SWAT was run with climate derived EURO-CORDEX models (RCA4/RACMO22E) for four periods (1970–2000, 2010–2040, 2040–2070 and 2070–2100). Water availability was analysed using the Water Exploitation Index (WEI) that was calculated for both reservoirs combining changes of inflows and irrigation requirements. The results indicated that climate change will negatively impact water availability in both reservoirs, especially under RCP8.5. In the case of the Monte Novo reservoir, future domestic water supply could be constrained by water quality problems related with phosphorus loads. For Vigia reservoir, the high water exploitation will lead to water scarcity problems, mainly as this reservoir on present-day conditions is restrictive on irrigation requirements. Adaptation strategies such as the implementation of high end technology (e.g. soil moisture and plant water stress probes, satellite imagery and drones to evaluate water stress – NDVI) as well as the renewal of the irrigation network and adequate crop selection can help attenuating the effects of climate change on the water resources in this region. En ligne : https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139477 Permalink : https://cs.iut.univ-tours.fr/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=248149
in Science of the Total Environment > vol. 739 (20 September 2020) . - p. 1-13[article] Impacts of climate change on reservoir water availability, quality and irrigation needs in a water scarce Mediterranean region (southern Portugal) [objet à 3 dimensions, artefacts, ...] / J. Rocha, Auteur ; J.J. Keizer ; P. Beça ; P. Diogo ; J.P. Nunes ; C. Carvalho-Santos, Auteur . - 2020 . - p. 1-13.
Langues : Anglais (eng) Langues originales : Anglais (eng)
in Science of the Total Environment > vol. 739 (20 September 2020) . - p. 1-13
Catégories : A HISTOIRE - Pays et ensemble de pays:Histoire de l'Europe:Europe occidentale:Portugal ; C ECONOMIE - ECONOMIE SOCIALE ET SOLIDAIRE:Génie civil, militaire et minier:Technologie hydraulique:Irrigation ; F POPULATIONS - ETUDES DE CAS:Water requirements ; S SCIENCES ET TECHNIQUES:Administration de la science et de la recherche:Technologie:Technologie de pointe ; S SCIENCES ET TECHNIQUES:Approche scientifique:Méthode scientifique:Modèle de simulation Use only in connection with research and planning.; S SCIENCES ET TECHNIQUES:Pollution, catastrophes et sécurité:Dégradation de l'environnement:Changement climatiqueMots-clés : 07 - ENVIRONNEMENT 7.3 - Eau. Gestion de l'Eau CLIMATIC CHANGE BESOIN EN EAU WATER RESERVOIRS RESERVOIR D'EAU WATER AVAILABITY EAU DISPONIBLE GLOBAL WARMING RECHAUFFEMENT GLOBAL WATER RESOURCES RESSOURCE EN EAU HIGH TECHNOLOGY WATER SUPPLY APPROVISIONNEMENT EN EAU SIMULATION MODEL MEDITERRANEAN REGION REGION MEDITERRANEENNE Résumé : Future climate for the Mediterranean climatic region is expected to bring an increase in temperatures, decrease in the precipitation quantity and shifts in the seasonal precipitation pattern. Although the impacts of climate change on water resources have been relatively well explored for the Mediterranean climatic region, the specific consequences for reservoirs and, in particular, water availability and irrigation issues have been less studied. The objective of this work is two-fold: (i) to assess the impacts of future climate changes on water resources availability, quality (focusing on phosphorus loads as this is the limiting nutrient for eutrophication) and irrigation needs for two multipurpose reservoirs in southern Portugal; (ii) to suggest climate change adaptation strategies, especially for the agricultural sector. To this end, the SWAT model was first calibrated against existing data on reservoir inflows as well as phosphorus loads. Then, SWAT was run with climate derived EURO-CORDEX models (RCA4/RACMO22E) for four periods (1970–2000, 2010–2040, 2040–2070 and 2070–2100). Water availability was analysed using the Water Exploitation Index (WEI) that was calculated for both reservoirs combining changes of inflows and irrigation requirements. The results indicated that climate change will negatively impact water availability in both reservoirs, especially under RCP8.5. In the case of the Monte Novo reservoir, future domestic water supply could be constrained by water quality problems related with phosphorus loads. For Vigia reservoir, the high water exploitation will lead to water scarcity problems, mainly as this reservoir on present-day conditions is restrictive on irrigation requirements. Adaptation strategies such as the implementation of high end technology (e.g. soil moisture and plant water stress probes, satellite imagery and drones to evaluate water stress – NDVI) as well as the renewal of the irrigation network and adequate crop selection can help attenuating the effects of climate change on the water resources in this region. En ligne : https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139477 Permalink : https://cs.iut.univ-tours.fr/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=248149
