[article]
| Titre : |
Decadal analysis of impact of future climate on wheat production in dry Mediterranean environment: a case of Jordan |
| Type de document : |
objet à 3 dimensions, artefacts, ... |
| Auteurs : |
P.N. Dixit ; R. Telleria ; A.N. Al Khatib ; S.F. Allouzi |
| Année de publication : |
2018 |
| Article en page(s) : |
p. 219-233 |
| Langues : |
Anglais (eng) Langues originales : Anglais (eng) |
| Catégories : |
A HISTOIRE - Pays et ensemble de pays:Asie et Pacifique:Moyen-Orient:Jordanie ; S SCIENCES ET TECHNIQUES:Météorologie:Zone climatique:Zone aride ; S SCIENCES ET TECHNIQUES:Pollution, catastrophes et sécurité:Dégradation de l'environnement:Changement climatique ; S SCIENCES ET TECHNIQUES:Sciences de la chimie:Gaz:Dioxyde de carbone
|
| Mots-clés : |
CLIMATIC CHANGE CARBON DIOXIDE IMPACT ASSESSMENT EVALUATION DE L'IMPACT CROP YIELD RENDEMENT DES CULTURES TRITICUM TRITICUM WHEATS BLE ARID ZONES MEDITERRANEAN CLIMATE CLIMAT MEDITERRANEEN JORDAN 07 - ENVIRONNEMENT 7.6 - Changement Climatique |
| Résumé : |
Different aspects of climate change, such as increased temperature, changed rainfall and higher atmospheric CO2 concentration, all have different effects on crop yields. Process-based crop models are the most widely used tools for estimating future crop yield responses to climate change. We applied APSIM crop simulation model in a dry Mediterranean climate with Jordan as sentinel site to assess impact of climate change on wheat production at decadal level considering two climate change scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCP) viz., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Impact of climatic variables alone was negative on grain yield but this adverse effect was negated when elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations were also considered in the simulations. Crop cycle of wheat was reduced by a fortnight for RCP4.5 scenario and by a month for RCP8.5 scenario at the approach of end of the century. On an average, a grain yield increase of 5 to 11% in near future i.e., 2010s–2030s decades, 12 to 16% in mid future i.e., 2040s–2060s decades and 9 to 16% in end of century period can be expected for moderate climate change scenario (RCP4.5) and 6 to 15% in near future, 13 to 19% in mid future and 7 to 20% increase in end of century period for a drastic climate change scenario (RCP8.5) based on different soils. Positive impact of elevated CO2 is more pronounced in soils with lower water holding capacity with moderate increase in temperatures. Elevated CO2 had greater positive effect on transpiration use efficiency (TUE) than negative effect of elevated mean temperatures. The change in TUE was in near perfect direct relationship with elevated CO2 levels (R2 > 0.99) and every 100-ppm atmospheric CO2 increase resulted in TUE increase by 2 kg ha− 1 mm− 1. Thereby, in this environment yield gains are expected in future and farmers can benefit from growing wheat. Transpiration use efficiency (kg ha− 1 mm− 1) of wheat yield production for baseline and decadal future climate based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios, with and without considering CO2 response, at Maru and Mushaqar, Jordan. Year 2015 represents 2010–2020 decade, year 2025 represents 2020–2030 decade and so on. |
| En ligne : |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.07.270 |
| Permalink : |
https://cs.iut.univ-tours.fr/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=240294 |
in Science of the Total Environment > vol. 610-611 (01/01/2018) . - p. 219-233
[article] Decadal analysis of impact of future climate on wheat production in dry Mediterranean environment: a case of Jordan [objet à 3 dimensions, artefacts, ...] / P.N. Dixit ; R. Telleria ; A.N. Al Khatib ; S.F. Allouzi . - 2018 . - p. 219-233. Langues : Anglais ( eng) Langues originales : Anglais ( eng) in Science of the Total Environment > vol. 610-611 (01/01/2018) . - p. 219-233
| Catégories : |
A HISTOIRE - Pays et ensemble de pays:Asie et Pacifique:Moyen-Orient:Jordanie ; S SCIENCES ET TECHNIQUES:Météorologie:Zone climatique:Zone aride ; S SCIENCES ET TECHNIQUES:Pollution, catastrophes et sécurité:Dégradation de l'environnement:Changement climatique ; S SCIENCES ET TECHNIQUES:Sciences de la chimie:Gaz:Dioxyde de carbone
|
| Mots-clés : |
CLIMATIC CHANGE CARBON DIOXIDE IMPACT ASSESSMENT EVALUATION DE L'IMPACT CROP YIELD RENDEMENT DES CULTURES TRITICUM TRITICUM WHEATS BLE ARID ZONES MEDITERRANEAN CLIMATE CLIMAT MEDITERRANEEN JORDAN 07 - ENVIRONNEMENT 7.6 - Changement Climatique |
| Résumé : |
Different aspects of climate change, such as increased temperature, changed rainfall and higher atmospheric CO2 concentration, all have different effects on crop yields. Process-based crop models are the most widely used tools for estimating future crop yield responses to climate change. We applied APSIM crop simulation model in a dry Mediterranean climate with Jordan as sentinel site to assess impact of climate change on wheat production at decadal level considering two climate change scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCP) viz., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Impact of climatic variables alone was negative on grain yield but this adverse effect was negated when elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations were also considered in the simulations. Crop cycle of wheat was reduced by a fortnight for RCP4.5 scenario and by a month for RCP8.5 scenario at the approach of end of the century. On an average, a grain yield increase of 5 to 11% in near future i.e., 2010s–2030s decades, 12 to 16% in mid future i.e., 2040s–2060s decades and 9 to 16% in end of century period can be expected for moderate climate change scenario (RCP4.5) and 6 to 15% in near future, 13 to 19% in mid future and 7 to 20% increase in end of century period for a drastic climate change scenario (RCP8.5) based on different soils. Positive impact of elevated CO2 is more pronounced in soils with lower water holding capacity with moderate increase in temperatures. Elevated CO2 had greater positive effect on transpiration use efficiency (TUE) than negative effect of elevated mean temperatures. The change in TUE was in near perfect direct relationship with elevated CO2 levels (R2 > 0.99) and every 100-ppm atmospheric CO2 increase resulted in TUE increase by 2 kg ha− 1 mm− 1. Thereby, in this environment yield gains are expected in future and farmers can benefit from growing wheat. Transpiration use efficiency (kg ha− 1 mm− 1) of wheat yield production for baseline and decadal future climate based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios, with and without considering CO2 response, at Maru and Mushaqar, Jordan. Year 2015 represents 2010–2020 decade, year 2025 represents 2020–2030 decade and so on. |
| En ligne : |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.07.270 |
| Permalink : |
https://cs.iut.univ-tours.fr/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=240294 |
|
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Partager le résultat de cette rechercheL'agriculture dans la compétition internationale (II) in Economie rurale / Persée et CAIRN, n. 174 (1986/07-08)
